[CHANGING BREEDS] [PROPOSAL] Ajaba - Rarity Reduction [AUTOPASS]

"Black tooth commutes the genocide at ngorongoro crater in 1984. So we will start with the assumption of modern day and 34 years between then and now

 

Cb20 states that Ajaba kin have a 30% chance to breed true.   That number is dramatically increased when one parent is a Shifter. So let's just say that makes it 50% when 1 parent is a shifter. 20 years at the average family rate of 2.36 kids per family. (That's using today's numbers 20 years ago it was even higher) 

 

 

So let's assume just kin alone 2000 survived 

 

2000x2.36=4720 children born to those kin.

 

4720x.3=1416 pure breed shifters from the human kin alone

 

Hyenas have a 2 year pregnancy and produce between 3 and 7 pups. Assuming 3 we get this figure if only 2000 kin survived. And they had 5 litters in their lifetime that's only 10 years of reproduction and not an uncommon figure

 

2000×3×5=30,000

 

30,000x.3=9,000

 

 

So assumikng worldwide only 4000 kin and no true born shifters survived there are over 10000 Ajaba in existence right now. 

 

That's not factoring In the hyaenid children or the children of the kin who were born some 34 years ago. Also we must take into account that 30% of those kids are true born and increase the birth rates of shifters from their pairing as well.

 

 

If the Ajaba as the book states are intent on increasing their ranks after the mass murder black tooth committed then these numbers are not a far stretch. I'm using average figures not the figures of a populace trying with intent to rebreed their species. I'm also using small figures stating only 4000 kin and 0 shifters survived the mass genocide worldwide. That's also only counting 1 generations birthrate for homid kin and only 5 birth cycles with no new cycles from the developed hyena offspring. 

 

 

These numbers I think would speak to the fact that there would be little reasoning why in the modern nights Ajaba should be considered near extinct. 

 

Even if we say 200 instead of 2000 and take 10 percent of that number there are over 1000 Ajaba, assuming every shifter died to black tooth, in existence right now. The idea that a handful are headed to the western world to gather support for their new society is not only likely, it's the intelligent option. Before the garou decide to mass murder the populace again, as is their way, it would be tactical to show you are not the enemy and extend an olive branch."

 

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Simplified Reasoning
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In Changing Breeds w20, it was stated that Ajaba have a significantly increased rate of fertility. 

This is a change that has been a long time coming and is being presented now to help progress the genre forward with new material as presented. 

As such, we would like to lower the rarity from 'Near Extinct' to 'Rare' and make this particular breed of Fera Coordinator approval to hopefully get some genre appropriate Ajaba into play in the org.

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